|
By John Kaponi
The European Union is facing its most serious security and energy crisis with crucial gas pipelines at threat following the Georgian government's actions on Friday invading South Ossetia provoking Russia to respond militarily causing the deaths of around 1500 people and 30,000 refugees.
In 1989 conflict erupted in South Ossetia since the dispute over South Ossetia’s ambition to secede from Georgia spilled over into hostilities in 1991. Some 2,000 people died in the fighting and about 100,000 became refugees.Georgia’s relationship with Russia has deteriorated materially over the last six months. As part of the war of words about political and economic differences. The conflict which was triggered by the the decision of Georgia to retake the South Ossetia region and Georgia's intentions to join NATO; added to a recent proliferation of tensions caused by the Georgian government procuring weapons from "non-Russian sources".The Georgian government was criticised by the Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov: "Those who have been supplying arms to Georgia should feel part of the blame for the loss of life of civilians including many Russian citizens, both peacekeepers and civilians."The government's of the Ukraine who also wants to join NATO have been blamed by Russia for adding to the tension in the region:"The Ukrainian government, which has been enthusiastically arming Georgian troops from top to bottom, was in fact encouraging Georgia to attack and carry out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia," the Russian Foreign ministry.
In Tiblisi the Georgian capital the government has declared a state of war with martial law in place on the streets. The Georgian Olympic team will return home and the President of Georgia has called for an immediate ceasefire from Russia:
"My offer is for an immediate ceasefire, disengagement of forces and the demilitarisation of every area where there is friction between troops," Saakashvili said at a news briefing.
"Russia has launched a full scale military invasion of Georgia."
The ramifications for the European Union is that a response which is not taken seriously by Russia will lead to more provokations and conflicts in the very near future.
The European Union would like to expand its economic influence into the bulk of the territory between the EU border and Moscow, as well as into the Caucasus. Europe does not see this as an imperialist venture, but simply as the natural order. The Russians see the world through a different perspective, and European plans would be even more damaging in the long run to Russian interests than will American efforts, as they would make these border territories not only politically unreliable, but rather like the Baltics: firmly integrated into a rival system.
Peter Zeihan has identified further flash points for the European Union and the United States government with Russia:
"If economic tools no longer are relevant, Russia will be forced to fall back on political and military tactics, including:
* Military intimidation of the Baltics and Finland.
* Reunion with Belarus and a return of the Red Army to the Polish border.
* Overt intervention in the Russian-speaking portions of Ukraine.
* Active and public participation in Georgia’s secessionist conflicts, both to block European influence and to disrupt some of those alternate energy supplies.
* Support for Europe’s various secessionist regions."
The British Government has warned against travel to South Ossetia and Georgia and has supported the territorial integrity of Georgia at the UN.
|
