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Editorial
Watching the scenes via satellite in our comfy homes in London, of Egyptians attempting to topple President Mubarak and his regime is very easy, and again highlights what "lucky people" we really are in this city. Cairo has been hit by industrial strikes, water and food shortages rising inflation and this staggering statistic that Egypt's GDP: $216 billion (pop. 80 million) compared to Singapore GDP (pop. 5 million) $217 billion. It's Egypt's "geo-political" importance that should concern us here in London, with Mubarak playing the role of ally to Israel, now with his role diminished with a strong potential of his rule being over, what next for Egypt? Will we have another Erdogan, who will pander strongly to the east, with strong overtures to Iran and the Islamic world, whilst still wanting to keep relations cordial with the West?
The anger felt on the streets of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria is more directed now at the corruption and incompetence of the Mubarak regime to keep Egyptians in full time employment, and to provide affordable housing and food for the people. But what happens the day after a new government is sworn in? Anger towards the "Zionist’s" is escalated, or support for the other "democracies" in the region. Let’s not forget that elections in the region have produced the following results:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Hamas in Gaza
- Political chaos & radical Shia in Iraq
- Iran's Mullahs
What London should be hoping for is the current Mubarak regime to accept that new reforms are required, but no fundamental shifts in the leadership in Cairo. Israel is watching and as has been shown before will act if her national security interests are in any doubt. What we do not want is an escalation or a domino effect, with other governments in the region falling because of civil unrest. Crude prices will rocket, if this instability continues as Nouriel Roubini has pointed out is we will see "oil/food price rise: higher inflation in Emerging Markets, lower growth in advanced economies, greater political risk & rise in risk aversion."
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